Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 203.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

A throwing game script is implied by the Bears being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
The Chicago Bears have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
Justin Fields has thrown for substantially more adjusted yards per game (200.0) this season than he did last season (149.0).
This year, the weak Green Bay Packers defense has allowed a massive 72.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-largest rate in the league.
This year, the feeble Green Bay Packers defense has allowed the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a whopping 8.08 yards.

Cons

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to pass on 52.1% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 63.4 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
This week, Justin Fields is forecasted by the projection model to wind up with the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 29.6.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Green Bay Packers, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
200
Passing Yards