Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-110).

Pros

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 138.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
In this game, Jonathan Taylor is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 18.7 rush attempts.
While Jonathan Taylor has accounted for 56.8% of his offense’s rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Indianapolis’s running game in this game at 34.4%.
The Houston defensive tackles profile as the 4th-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Cons

The model projects the Colts to be the 6th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 38.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jonathan Taylor’s 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a meaningful drop-off in his running prowess over last season’s 79.0 figure.
The Houston Texans defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 3.34 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards