NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bengals vs. Browns
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- A running game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-most on the slate this week.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- The model projects Joe Mixon to total 17.3 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- With a terrific rate of 58.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (86th percentile), Joe Mixon stands as one of the best RBs in the league this year.
Cons
- The Bengals may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup QB Jake Browning.
- At the moment, the 2nd-least run-centric offense in football (33.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
- Our trusted projections expect Joe Mixon to be a less important option in his team’s ground game in this contest (59.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (72.0% in games he has played).
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
- Opposing teams have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 97.0 per game) versus the Browns defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
