Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).

Pros

A running game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-most on the slate this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The model projects Joe Mixon to total 17.3 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
With a terrific rate of 58.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (86th percentile), Joe Mixon stands as one of the best RBs in the league this year.

Cons

The Bengals may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup QB Jake Browning.
At the moment, the 2nd-least run-centric offense in football (33.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Our trusted projections expect Joe Mixon to be a less important option in his team’s ground game in this contest (59.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (72.0% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 97.0 per game) versus the Browns defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards