Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-120).
Pros
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.1 plays per game.
- The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (59.0) vs. TEs this year.
Cons
- A running game script is suggested by the Saints being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Juwan Johnson’s 62.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a significant decrease in his receiving ability over last year’s 67.7% rate.
- Juwan Johnson’s 6.2 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 8.4 figure.
- This year, the stout Falcons pass defense has given up the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a mere 3.6 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
