Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aidan O'Connell from EV Insight

Aidan O’ConnellPassing Yards

Right now, Aidan O’Connell’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 211.5 (-110) after it opened @ 212.5 (-110).

Pros

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Raiders grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
This year, the poor Denver Broncos defense has been torched for the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a whopping 8.20 yards.
This year, the weak Broncos defense has surrendered the 4th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing teams: a monstrous 5.51 YAC.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Denver’s group of LBs has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

Cons

A rushing game script is implied by the Raiders being a 3-point favorite this week.
Right now, the 8th-least pass-centric team in football (58.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
The predictive model expects the Raiders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards