Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jamaal Williams from EV Insight

Jamaal WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Jamaal Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).

Pros

A running game script is suggested by the Saints being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.1 plays per game.
The projections expect Jamaal Williams to total 15.4 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
While Jamaal Williams has received 27.2% of his team’s carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in New Orleans’s ground game in this week’s game at 55.4%.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to run on 40.4% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
Jamaal Williams has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).
Jamaal Williams’s 3.0 adjusted yards per carry this year shows a remarkable reduction in his running prowess over last year’s 4.4 figure.
As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, Atlanta’s group of DTs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards