Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Lions vs. Vikings
Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game’s spread implies a running game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- Right now, the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (41.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Lions.
- The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Lions this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average).
- Jahmyr Gibbs has picked up 67.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (94th percentile).
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- This year, the anemic Minnesota Vikings run defense has been torched for a massive 4.03 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 27th-largest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
