Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Ezekiel Elliott from EV Insight

Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards

Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots as the 2nd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.2% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
In this week’s contest, Ezekiel Elliott is expected by the projections to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.0 rush attempts.
While Ezekiel Elliott has received 44.0% of his team’s rushing play calls in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in New England’s rushing attack this week at 62.7%.

Cons

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Patriots this year (a mere 56.2 per game on average).
Ezekiel Elliott’s 34.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year marks an impressive regression in his running talent over last year’s 61.0 rate.
Ezekiel Elliott’s 3.2 adjusted yards per carry this season signifies a substantial decrease in his rushing prowess over last season’s 4.0 figure.
This year, the anemic Jets run defense has surrendered a massive 4.09 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 25th-biggest rate in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards