Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Devon AchaneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Devon Achane’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The model projects Devon Achane to accumulate 16.7 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- While Devon Achane has been responsible for 31.2% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Miami’s running game in this contest at 70.0%.
- The Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL last year in run-blocking.
- With a stellar tally of 71.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Devon Achane has been as one of the leading pure runners in the league this year.
- The Buffalo Bills defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 4.67 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- This week’s line indicates a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs.
- The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.14 seconds per play.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Rushing Yards
88
Rushing Yards
