Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devin Singletary from EV Insight

Devin SingletaryRushing Yards

Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Devin Singletary has averaged 55.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (77th percentile).
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 9th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a much smaller piece of his team’s run game this week (40.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.2% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots defense boasts the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.15 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards