NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-114) after it opened @ 214.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 38.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
- The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Cons
- Mac Jones’s throwing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 64.3%.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.28 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards
249
Passing Yards
