Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-114) after it opened @ 214.5 (-114).

Pros

The Patriots are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 38.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Cons

Mac Jones’s throwing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 64.3%.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.28 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards