Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Each week in this space, we’re picking out our favorite same-game parlay for the Sunday action to get in on the betting action.
With 14 games on the Sunday slate, there are a few possibilities for you to build an SGP, but I like the situation in Pittsburgh Sunday more than any other. Pittsburgh (8-8) comes into Sunday’s home contest against Cleveland looking for a win and a little help. Simply put, the Steelers need to win, and the Dolphins and Patriots need to lose Sunday. Miami, New England and Pittsburgh all play at 1 p.m. ET, so this should ensure the Steelers play all starters to keep their playoff chances alive.
DraftKings NFL Week 18 Same Game Parlay
Najee Harris Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
Nick Chubb Under 79.5 Rushing Yards
Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline
+250, DraftKings Sportsbook
Najee Harris was on my fade list during fantasy redraft season, and I did not start him in a single DFS lineup this season. However, preconceived notions limit our ability to adapt to the present, and if you watched last week’s Steelers-Ravens game, you saw Harris handle 22 carries, accumulate 111 rushing yards and score a game-winning touchdown on an encouraging improvisational throw from Kenny Pickett. What I saw was Mike Tomlin trusting his workhorse, even while trailing 13-3, to get the Steelers back into the game and playoff contention. The Browns struggle to contain opposing running backs, allowing the fifth most rushing yards per game (116.4) and 162 rushing yards per game over their last three. With their season on the line, look for the Steelers to take advantage of the Browns’ vulnerable rush defense and get Harris 25-plus carries in Week 18.
For all the success that Pittsburgh had on the ground last week, it may be the other side of the ball that is even more impressive. The Steelers’ rush defense has been good against opposing running backs this season (90.4 yards per game), but they have downright stifled opponents of late, allowing 66.3 yards per game on the ground over their last three games (best in the league). As good as Nick Chubb is, given what is on the line for Pittsburgh and the success of their rush defense, I don’t see how he hits this over without breaking a long run.
While he’s capable of such a run, I like the Steelers to play with a lead in this one, limiting Chubb’s opportunities on the ground. His O/U is 70.5 on most books this week, so I like buying the extra nine yards for insurance at relatively little cost, and, hey, there’s always a chance they decide to rest him if they’re down in the second half.
Mike Tomlin. Yes, Mike Tomlin. In a game with a potential playoff berth at stake, I’m taking Tomlin. Pittsburgh is playing its best football of the season, so I love the ML here as a little more insurance than the -2.5. It’s not just the playoffs, though. Tomlin’s NFL-record streak of 15 consecutive winning seasons to start an NFL career is also at stake. The Tomlin-era streak continues into another year.
Home. Tomlin. Run game. Defense. Towels. Steelers. Win.
