Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-110).

Pros

The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Out of all running backs, Brian Robinson grades out in the 92nd percentile for carries this year, comprising 60.4% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.

Cons

The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 33.6% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the ramifications it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year.
Brian Robinson’s 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a remarkable drop-off in his running proficiency over last season’s 63.0 mark.
As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Dallas’s unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards