Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Bijan RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run on 45.4% of their downs: the 10th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects the Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to accumulate 15.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- With an exceptional total of 51.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (77th percentile), Bijan Robinson places among the top running backs in the NFL this year.
- This year, the fierce New Orleans Saints run defense has conceded a feeble 4.61 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 23rd-smallest rate in the league.
Cons
- A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- When it comes to the linebackers’ role in defending against the run, New Orleans’s LB corps has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
