Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 11.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been a much bigger part of his offense’s air attack this season (31.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (26.9%).

Cons

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.6 plays per game.
Tyreek Hill’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.7% to 71.6%.
The New York Jets defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in football (just 113.0) vs. WRs this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (61.8%) versus WRs this year (61.8%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards