Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 11.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
- Tyreek Hill has been a much bigger part of his offense’s air attack this season (31.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (26.9%).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.6 plays per game.
- Tyreek Hill’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.7% to 71.6%.
- The New York Jets defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in football (just 113.0) vs. WRs this year.
- The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (61.8%) versus WRs this year (61.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
