NBA Best Bets of the Day (1/6)


NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 


I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 

Alec Burks Over 14.5 Points

(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alec Burks has gone over this number in four of his last five games and now gets a great matchup against the Spurs who are 8th in pace and dead last in defense this season. Burks should continue to see increased usage with Cade Cunningham and Marvin Bagley out, and in his last five games, he is averaging over 19.6 points per game. The Spurs rank dead last in points allowed, 3 PT%, and FG% allowed and will now be without one of their best perimeter defenders in Devin Vassell.

I also have interest in laddering this bet, you can get Burks for 20+ at +330 and 25+ at +1100 on FanDuel. 

John Collins Over 14.5 Points

(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

We hit on a John Collins ladder the other day up to 20 points, and my model likes him again here in a matchup against the Lakers sans Anthony Davis. My model has Collins for over 17 points. 

Rui Hachimura Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Rui Hachimura has taken a step up in this offense over the last few games as he works his way back to more normal minutes and especially with Bradley Beal out, he should be expected to take on more volume. He has surpassed 10 shot attempts in seven of his last eight games while also adding at least 5 rebounds in five of his last eight. My model has Hachimura for 18 points alone, and another 6 rebounds tonight, creating a nice edge on this line. 

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