NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 61.8% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
- Noah Fant’s 9.0 adjusted yards per target this season shows a noteworthy boost in his receiving talent over last season’s 7.6 mark.
- The Cardinals pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. tight ends this year, conceding 8.31 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a running game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
- Noah Fant’s 18.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 24.6.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
