Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nico Collins from EV Insight

Nico CollinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-110).

Pros

The model projects the Texans as the 9th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are projected by the model to call 69.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a whopping 60.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Nico Collins has accrued substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).

Cons

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.6 per game) this year.
This year, the tough Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded a paltry 141.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 9th-best in the league.
The Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards