Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Nico CollinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Colts vs. Texans
Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Texans as the 9th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are projected by the model to call 69.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
- The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a whopping 60.0 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Nico Collins has accrued substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
Cons
- Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.6 per game) this year.
- This year, the tough Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded a paltry 141.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 9th-best in the league.
- The Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards
92
Receiving Yards
