Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
Nelson AgholorReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Ravens vs. Steelers
Right now, Nelson Agholor’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Ravens will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
- While Nelson Agholor has earned 9.2% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much more involved in Baltimore’s passing attack in this game at 18.5%.
- The Baltimore O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Nelson Agholor’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 60.0% to 77.1%.
Cons
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 52.6% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The model projects the Ravens to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically prompt decreased passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.
- Opposing offenses teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 34.5 per game) this year.
- Nelson Agholor has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (38.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
