Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nelson Agholor from EV Insight

Nelson AgholorReceiving Yards

Right now, Nelson Agholor’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-110).

Pros

The Ravens will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
While Nelson Agholor has earned 9.2% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much more involved in Baltimore’s passing attack in this game at 18.5%.
The Baltimore O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
Nelson Agholor’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 60.0% to 77.1%.

Cons

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 52.6% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The model projects the Ravens to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically prompt decreased passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 34.5 per game) this year.
Nelson Agholor has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (38.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards