Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Johnny MundtReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Lions vs. Vikings
Right now, Johnny Mundt’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to start backup quarterback Nick Mullens this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- This week’s line indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- At the moment, the 9th-quickest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cons
- Johnny Mundt’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 90.5% to 68.8%.
- This year, the imposing Lions defense has surrendered a mere 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
