Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).
Pros
- Mike Gesicki’s ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 66.3% to 70.2%.
- This year, the poor Jets defense has been torched for the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing tight ends: a monstrous 6.26 YAC.
Cons
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 49.8% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 8th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Patriots this year (a mere 56.2 per game on average).
- Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards
15
Receiving Yards
