Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kylen GransonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Colts vs. Texans
Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-120/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-120) after it opened @ 20.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 6th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 138.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The model projects Kylen Granson to notch 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
- This year, the feeble Texans defense has allowed a colossal 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 7th-worst in the league.
Cons
- Kylen Granson’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 77.7% to 64.5%.
- This year, the formidable Texans pass defense has allowed the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a measly 3.8 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
