Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-120) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).

Pros

A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to total 6.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
The Falcons O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Cons

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 54.6% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
After accumulating 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has significantly declined this year, currently averaging 62.0 per game.
Kyle Pitts’s 44.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 63.1.
Kyle Pitts’s ability to generate extra yardage has declined this year, averaging just 2.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.61 figure last year.
This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has yielded a measly 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the best rate in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards