NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-120) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
- The predictive model expects the Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to total 6.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
- The Falcons O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 54.6% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- After accumulating 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has significantly declined this year, currently averaging 62.0 per game.
- Kyle Pitts’s 44.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 63.1.
- Kyle Pitts’s ability to generate extra yardage has declined this year, averaging just 2.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.61 figure last year.
- This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has yielded a measly 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the best rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
