Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).

Pros

A throwing game script is implied by the Bears being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
The Chicago Bears have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has been a much smaller piece of his team’s offense this year, staying in the game for just 79.4% of snaps vs 90.5% last year.
The projections expect Cole Kmet to accrue 5.2 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has put up many more adjusted receiving yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).

Cons

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to pass on 52.1% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 63.4 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Green Bay Packers, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Green Bay’s DE corps has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards