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Chris Meaney
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).
Pros
- A throwing game script is implied by the Bears being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
- Cole Kmet has been a much smaller piece of his team’s offense this year, staying in the game for just 79.4% of snaps vs 90.5% last year.
- The projections expect Cole Kmet to accrue 5.2 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet has put up many more adjusted receiving yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to pass on 52.1% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 63.4 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Green Bay Packers, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
- In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
- When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Green Bay’s DE corps has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
