Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Lions vs. Vikings
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-127/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 99.5 (-127) after it opened @ 87.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to start backup quarterback Nick Mullens this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- This week’s line indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- At the moment, the 9th-quickest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.
- This year, the weak Detroit Lions defense has conceded a colossal 177.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 5th-worst in football.
Cons
- Justin Jefferson’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 72.0% to 65.0%.
- This year, the formidable Lions pass defense has surrendered the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a feeble 3.4 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
112
Receiving Yards
112
Receiving Yards
