Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-114) after it opened @ 61.5 (-113).

Pros

The Bengals may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup QB Jake Browning.
At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (66.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-most on the slate this week.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 95.9% of his team’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
This week, Ja’Marr Chase is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.6 targets.

Cons

A running game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
After accruing 97.0 air yards per game last year, Ja’Marr Chase has regressed heavily this year, currently pacing 89.0 per game.
Ja’Marr Chase’s 79.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year conveys a meaningful reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 93.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards