NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-103/-129).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-103) after it opened @ 37.5 (-117).
Pros
- Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are projected by the model to call 67.8 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.
- The Washington Commanders defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.
- Jake Ferguson’s 75.4% Route Participation Rate this year reflects a meaningful improvement in his pass attack utilization over last year’s 18.3% rate.
- In this week’s game, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the model to slot into the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.2 targets.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is indicated by the Cowboys being a huge 13.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 54.5% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Jake Ferguson’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 84.5% to 72.3%.
- The Commanders defense has given up the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 40.0) vs. TEs this year.
- This year, the imposing Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a paltry 6.7 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
