Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jake Ferguson

Jake FergusonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-103/-129).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-103) after it opened @ 37.5 (-117).

Pros

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are projected by the model to call 67.8 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.
Jake Ferguson’s 75.4% Route Participation Rate this year reflects a meaningful improvement in his pass attack utilization over last year’s 18.3% rate.
In this week’s game, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the model to slot into the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.2 targets.

Cons

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Cowboys being a huge 13.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 54.5% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Jake Ferguson’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 84.5% to 72.3%.
The Commanders defense has given up the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 40.0) vs. TEs this year.
This year, the imposing Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a paltry 6.7 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards