Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Colts vs. Texans
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 267.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 267.5 (-127) after it opened @ 251.5 (-119).
Pros
- The model projects the Texans as the 9th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are projected by the model to call 69.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
- The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a whopping 60.0 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Our trusted projections expect C.J. Stroud to attempt 37.6 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-most among all QBs.
Cons
- Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.6 per game) this year.
- C.J. Stroud comes in as one of the worst precision passers in football this year with a 61.9% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 20th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
