Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-114/-114).

Pros

The Jets will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Garrett Wilson’s 98.0% Route% this year shows a remarkable improvement in his pass attack volume over last year’s 86.4% mark.
Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to earn 8.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has totaled significantly more air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (94.0 per game).
With a remarkable 65.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (86th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places as one of the best pass-catching WRs in the NFL.

Cons

The predictive model expects the New York Jets as the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Jets to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
With a bad 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate (21st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson stands among the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a measly 6.52 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.63 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards