NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- The Jets will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- Garrett Wilson’s 98.0% Route% this year shows a remarkable improvement in his pass attack volume over last year’s 86.4% mark.
- Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to earn 8.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Garrett Wilson has totaled significantly more air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (94.0 per game).
- With a remarkable 65.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (86th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places as one of the best pass-catching WRs in the NFL.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the New York Jets as the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect the Jets to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- With a bad 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate (21st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson stands among the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to wide receivers.
- Garrett Wilson’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a measly 6.52 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.63 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
