NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Titans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-130) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- At the moment, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (64.8% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Jaguars.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.
- In this game, Evan Engram is forecasted by the model to position himself in the 99th percentile among tight ends with 8.1 targets.
- Evan Engram has been much more involved in his offense’s passing offense this season (23.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.6%).
- In regards to air yards, Evan Engram grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a striking 40.0 per game.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- Evan Engram’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, notching just 4.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.00 rate last year.
- The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 43.0) to TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
