Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-130) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).

Pros

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (64.8% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Jaguars.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.
In this game, Evan Engram is forecasted by the model to position himself in the 99th percentile among tight ends with 8.1 targets.
Evan Engram has been much more involved in his offense’s passing offense this season (23.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.6%).
In regards to air yards, Evan Engram grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a striking 40.0 per game.

Cons

This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Evan Engram’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, notching just 4.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.00 rate last year.
The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 43.0) to TEs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards