Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We have a jam-packed slate of games Friday, with a few potential playoff previews, but a lot of injury report and fatigue nonsense we’ve come to expect from regular season NBA basketball.
I’ll spill the beans right now — We have 14 games, and I can only recommend one bet at this time. There are several other bets I will likely make and share in the FTNBets Discord later, but there are too many questions about whether or not key players will be on the court. It’s frustrating, but it’s important to stay disciplined and not risk money without knowing who is playing. It’s risky enough betting games not all teams find important to parlay that risk with a bet on an injured player. We have a lot to cover, so let’s get to the games.
Of course, since it’s Friday you can watch the video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTNBets YouTube channel. Please leave a comment on that video if there’s anything I could be doing better or if there is more information you’d like to see.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Current Line – 76ers -6, 231
My Projection – 76ers 120, Knicks 110
Key Injuries – Mitchell Robinson and De’Anthony Melton are out.
The Knicks have done very well despite losing Mitchell Robinson for the rest of the season. Robinson was their best rebounder and helped New York win the possession nightly by limiting opponents’ offensive rebounds while grabbing several offensive rebounds himself. Isaiah Hartenstein has been great defensively and is among league leaders in defensive metrics. I expect Friday be much different for the Knicks, because they face Joel Embiid. The reigning MVP’s size and skill are devastating and as good as Hartenstein has been, he’s not big enough to stop Embiid from getting the shots he wants. At the same time, Tyrese Maxey will also face little opposition from New York’s guards. I am curious to see if new Knick OG Anunoby gets time defending Maxey. He’s not as fast as Maxey, but Anunoby is a smart defender who is taller and much longer. The 76ers will struggle to defend Jaylen Brunson without De’Anthony Melton, but that looks like the only matchup that will trouble Philadelphia. Both teams are playing the first game of a back-to-back, but the 76ers play in Philadelphia again Saturday while the Knicks travel to D.C. Philadelphia also has an extra day of rest and preparation coming into the first matchup of these division opponents. My projections love Philadelphia, there’s nothing in the matchup that concerns me, and no schedule or rest issues. I’m going to lay the 6 points with the 76ers. See how nice that sounds?
Bet
Philadelphia 76ers -6 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics -14.5, 238.5
These prices are close to what my projections say, and there’s not a good reason to bet on either team anyway. The Jazz, who are one of the worst road teams against the spread this season, play in Boston Friday and then again in Philadelphia Saturday. As interesting as the Jazz are now that they are finally healthy, this is a brutal spot. The Celtics have a game in Indiana Saturday night. They don’t need their best to beat Utah and would be smart to limit their stars minutes so they can be fresh to beat a conference opponent Saturday. Too much questions about motivations for me to find a qualitative angle and my quantitative analysis agrees with the market. No bets for me on this game.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets +5.5, 234
I fully expected to back the Thunder, but I’m not going to do it. As great as OKC has been, I cant get to this big of a spread and only make it Thunder -4.5. It’s their first East coast road trip of the year and it can be tough for young teams to handle that much travel. From a matchup perspective, this should a fun game much like the Thunder/Hawks game we saw Wednesday. Brooklyn’s offense should be able to score and their isn’t a Net I can see slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Chet Holmgren. Maybe the Thunder blow them out, but I can’t see any value in betting on it to happen.
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers -2.5, 262
This is the highest total of the year and the highest I can ever remember seeing. As I’ve said before, games with extreme totals like this are hard to handicap. There is so much potential for variance with how many points each team is capable of scoring. My model likes the under, but, again, it’s not good at handling outlier situations like this. I think the Pacers win, but this game is too far out of my wheelhouse to make any recommendations.
Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers -10, 237.5
Cleveland has been playing better with just Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen. Of course, they’d love to have Evan Mobley and Darius Garland back on court, but the Cavaliers are learning a lot about their secondary players which will be invaluable as the season progresses. They will probably smash the Wizards, but my model makes it Cleveland -11, which is only one point more than the current spread. The Wizards continue to lose and oftentimes by a lot of points, but at 15-16-2 against the spread for the season it looks like the market is good at assessing them. Cleveland wins, but I’m not sure if they can maintain such a big lead through the end of the game. I’ll pass on this game.
Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans -1, 230.5
This should be a great game and possible playoff preview, but not a good game to bet. I make this game a pick and see no real difference between the squads other than the Pelicans are at home. Both teams are deep, well coached, and have matchups they can exploit. New Orleans size will make it hard for the Clippers to play small and they should be able to draw fouls. Conversely, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will win their matchups as well. I expect a high offensive rating for both teams which is good for an over, but I’m worried the pace will be slow especially if the game is close. It’s going to be a great game and is appointment viewing for me, but I can’t find any good bets to make in it.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets +3.5, 217.5
I was close to a bet on Houston here and if the line moves up to 4.5/5 I might back the Rockets. Check the Discord, because I’ll add that bet there if I do make it. The Rockets have been great at home, but their marketing rating is starting to get higher than I have it. It’s also the first night of a back-to-back, but they do play at home again Saturday night against the Bucks. This is another game I’m going to watch in full, because I think we’ll learn a lot about both teams, but not bets for now.
Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls -9.5, 220
Sometimes I am thrilled to see my model agrees with the market so I don’t have to bet on a game, and this one of those situations. I don’t want to lay almost 10 points with the Bulls and 10 isn’t nearly enough for me to bet on the Hornets. Just forget this game is even happening.
Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks -9, 236.5
The Mavericks were 11-point favorites and beat the Trail Blazers by 29 just two days ago. Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively are listed questionable, which is probably why the spread is two points lower. I expect Dallas to win by a lot again, but I am worried they rest Luka tonight. Doncic has been a warrior this season playing big minutes every night and could use the night off to be fresh for Sundays game against Minnesota. If Luka Doncic is announced in and the line is Dallas -10 or better then I will bet the Mavericks. I’ll post that in the Discord if/when I do bet it.
Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns -4, 229
This is another game where we’ll have to wait for the injury report to clear up before we bet on it. Kevin Durant is listed as questionable and if he can play tonight, I like the Suns -6 or better and if KD can’t play tonight, I like the Suns -2 or better. This is the last night of a five-game road trip for the Miami Heat who are without Jimmy Butler. The Heat will need their best effort and a good game plan to beat the Suns and it’s hard to expect that in such a bad schedule spot. Once the Durant news comes, I’ll post by bet in the Discord #nba-plays channel.
Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets -9, 223
The Nuggets won in Golden State Thursday with a late comeback and a banked-in three-pointer from just inside halfcourt by Nikola Jokic at the buzzer. Orlando has lost all three games of their West Coast road trip that ends and more importantly, lost Franz Wagner, who is their best player. It’s difficult for me to rate the Magic without Wagner because he is the engine that drives the offense and a good defender who can stay with smaller players and stand up to bigger players. Denver likely wins this game by a lot, but I have too many doubt about their fatigue from last night and my ability to project Orlando. No bets for me in this game.
Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors -10, 239
Not only did the Warriors lose in devastating fashion last game, Jonathan Kuminga decided to call a reporter and throw Steve Kerr under the bus. He said Kerr was holding back his development and that Kuminga can never reach his full potential playing for Kerr. So does that mean the Warriors collapse in on themselves like a dying star and possibly even lose to the Pistons? Or does Stephen Curry use this negativity as motivation to remind us all of how great he can be as he destroys the worst team in the NBA? I have no idea, but I do know I don’t want to bet on either outcome, so hard pass.
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers -4, 226
I’m close to betting on the Lakers in this game, but I’m going to wait and make sure LeBron James will be playing. Los Angeles has lost three games in a row and 9 of their last 12. The Grizzlies have fallen back into poor play after four great games when Ja Morant returned. The market rating on the Lakers has fallen as it should, but I haven’t see a drop in the rating for the Grizzlies commensurate with their recent performance. It’s tough to trust the Lakers, but this is a good spot for them if both of their stars can play. I’ll add this to the Discord if/when LeBron is announced to be playing.
Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings -5, 238
I love the way the Raptors have played in their few games since trading away OG Anunoby, but I agree with the current spread. My projections make it Kings -4.5, so there’s no edge to bet either way. I might be underestimating Toronto still, but Sacramento is back to playing good basketball, well unless they face the Hornets. I don’t hate a wager on the Raptors, because you could be buying low, but that’s not a bet I’m making myself.
