NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This week’s line indicates a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.6% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- Durham Smythe’s 71.3% Route Participation Rate this season signifies a remarkable growth in his pass game utilization over last season’s 27.1% rate.
- After accruing 5.0 air yards per game last year, Durham Smythe has seen a big uptick this year, now pacing 17.0 per game.
- Durham Smythe has notched a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.14 seconds per play.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- The Miami offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
- This year, the imposing Bills pass defense has allowed the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a mere 4.2 YAC.
- When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Buffalo’s LB corps has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
