Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Demario DouglasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Demario Douglas’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- In this contest, Demario Douglas is predicted by the projections to finish in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs with 6.8 targets.
- The model projects Demario Douglas to be a much bigger part of his team’s air attack in this week’s contest (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.0% in games he has played).
Cons
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 49.8% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 8th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Patriots this year (a mere 56.2 per game on average).
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
- With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas ranks among the best wide receivers in the league in football in the open field.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
