Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
This week, Davante Adams is expected by the projections to secure a spot in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 11.4 targets.
Davante Adams has notched a monstrous 127.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Davante Adams’s 86.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 75.0.
This year, the anemic Denver Broncos defense has yielded the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 9.04 yards.

Cons

A rushing game script is implied by the Raiders being a 3-point favorite this week.
Right now, the 8th-least pass-centric team in football (58.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
The predictive model expects the Raiders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
Davante Adams’s 74.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a meaningful drop-off in his receiving skills over last year’s 89.0 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards