NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Giants vs. Eagles
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Giants will be rolling with backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- In this game, Darren Waller is expected by the predictive model to find himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.4 targets.
Cons
- The Giants have been the 10th-least pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 59.2% pass rate.
- After accumulating 65.0 air yards per game last season, Darren Waller has regressed heavily this season, now averaging 48.0 per game.
- The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Darren Waller’s pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling just 7.55 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.78 figure last year.
- The Eagles safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
