Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Giants will be rolling with backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
In this game, Darren Waller is expected by the predictive model to find himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.4 targets.

Cons

The Giants have been the 10th-least pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 59.2% pass rate.
After accumulating 65.0 air yards per game last season, Darren Waller has regressed heavily this season, now averaging 48.0 per game.
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Darren Waller’s pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling just 7.55 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.78 figure last year.
The Eagles safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards