NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to accumulate 8.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
- CeeDee Lamb has been a more important option in his team’s passing attack this year (29.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (19.7%).
- CeeDee Lamb has notched substantially more receiving yards per game (83.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
- The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
