Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-154/+112).

The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-154) after it opened @ 58.5 (-113).

Pros

The Jets are a 4-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to earn 8.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the worst possession receivers in football, catching just 62.4% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 19th percentile among WRs
Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest WRs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown strong efficiency against WRs this year, giving up 7.70 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards