NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-154/+112).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-154) after it opened @ 58.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Jets are a 4-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to earn 8.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the worst possession receivers in football, catching just 62.4% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 19th percentile among WRs
- Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest WRs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown strong efficiency against WRs this year, giving up 7.70 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
