NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Raiders vs. Broncos
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
- When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Raiders grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
- Austin Hooper’s 80.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys an impressive gain in his receiving ability over last year’s 75.6% rate.
- Austin Hooper’s skills in generating extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, accumulating 5.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 3.54 mark last year.
- This year, the poor Broncos defense has given up a whopping 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the worst in the NFL.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Raiders being a 3-point favorite this week.
- Right now, the 8th-least pass-centric team in football (58.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
- The predictive model expects the Raiders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
- Austin Hooper’s 42.1% Route% this season conveys a meaningful reduction in his air attack utilization over last season’s 60.1% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
