Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 221.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 221.5 (-110) after it opened @ 215.5 (-110).

Pros

The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 66.4% of their plays: the highest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect Sam Howell to attempt 39.1 passes in this game, on balance: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.

Cons

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.
Sam Howell comes in as one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a 61.9% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 20th percentile.
Sam Howell has been one of the worst per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a measly 6.55 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 20th percentile.
This year, the tough Dallas Cowboys defense has given up a meager 202.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
222
Passing Yards