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Chris Meaney
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 221.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 221.5 (-110) after it opened @ 215.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 66.4% of their plays: the highest rate on the slate this week.
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The projections expect Sam Howell to attempt 39.1 passes in this game, on balance: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
Cons
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.
- Sam Howell comes in as one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a 61.9% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 20th percentile.
- Sam Howell has been one of the worst per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a measly 6.55 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 20th percentile.
- This year, the tough Dallas Cowboys defense has given up a meager 202.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
222
Passing Yards
222
Passing Yards
