Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Broncos vs. Chargers
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 232.5 (-110) after it opened @ 237.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
- Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 59.1%.
- Russell Wilson has been among the worst per-play passers in the league this year, averaging a lowly 6.61 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 19th percentile.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the least yards in football (just 200.0 per game) versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
225
Passing Yards
225
Passing Yards
