Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Nick MullensPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Lions vs. Vikings
Right now, Nick Mullens’s passing yards prop is set at 268.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 268.5 (-110) after it opened @ 265.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to start backup quarterback Nick Mullens this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- This week’s line indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- At the moment, the 9th-quickest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.
- Nick Mullens profiles as one of the best per-play passers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 8.27 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 90th percentile.
Cons
- This year, the stout Lions defense has yielded a puny 67.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
265
Passing Yards
265
Passing Yards
