Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 9.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his offense’s passing offense this season (30.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has totaled many more air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards