MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 9.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his offense’s passing offense this season (30.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (22.1%).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has totaled many more air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
