Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jarrett Stidham from EV Insight

Jarrett StidhamPassing Yards

Right now, Jarrett Stidham’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-115) after it opened @ 200.5 (-110).

Pros

The Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
This week’s line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Broncos to pass on 63.9% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Jarrett Stidham grades out as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 7.56 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 86th percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football versus the Raiders defense this year (73.3% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The Denver Broncos offense has played at the 3rd-slowest pace in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.44 seconds per snap.
As it relates to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Las Vegas’s collection of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards