Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jarrett StidhamPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Raiders vs. Broncos
Right now, Jarrett Stidham’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-115) after it opened @ 200.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
- This week’s line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Broncos to pass on 63.9% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- Jarrett Stidham grades out as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 7.56 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 86th percentile.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football versus the Raiders defense this year (73.3% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- The Denver Broncos offense has played at the 3rd-slowest pace in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.44 seconds per snap.
- As it relates to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Las Vegas’s collection of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards
231
Passing Yards
