Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Lions vs. Vikings
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+106/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (-137) after it opened @ 229.5 (-113).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Lions this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- Jared Goff comes in as one of the top QBs in the league this year, averaging an excellent 268.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Cons
- This game’s spread implies a running game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- At the present time, the 10th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.9% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Detroit Lions.
- This week, Jared Goff is predicted by the projection model to total the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.4.
- The Vikings safeties grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards
256
Passing Yards
