Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jared Goff from EV Insight

Jared GoffPassing Yards

Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+106/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (-137) after it opened @ 229.5 (-113).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Lions this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Jared Goff comes in as one of the top QBs in the league this year, averaging an excellent 268.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Cons

This game’s spread implies a running game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.
At the present time, the 10th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.9% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Detroit Lions.
This week, Jared Goff is predicted by the projection model to total the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.4.
The Vikings safeties grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards