Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 61.8% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
The projections expect Geno Smith to throw 35.4 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all QBs.
This year, the shaky Arizona Cardinals defense has been gouged for a monstrous 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-largest rate in the league.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Arizona’s CB corps has been awful this year, ranking as the worst in football.

Cons

The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
Geno Smith’s throwing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 66.2%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards