NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 61.8% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
- The projections expect Geno Smith to throw 35.4 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all QBs.
- This year, the shaky Arizona Cardinals defense has been gouged for a monstrous 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-largest rate in the league.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Arizona’s CB corps has been awful this year, ranking as the worst in football.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a running game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
- Geno Smith’s throwing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 66.2%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards
274
Passing Yards
