Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Gardner Minshew from EV Insight

Gardner MinshewPassing Yards

Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-114) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).

Pros

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 6th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 138.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Gardner Minshew to attempt 39.4 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 6th-most adjusted yards in football (262.0 per game) vs. the Texans defense this year.

Cons

Gardner Minshew’s 6.59 adjusted yards-per-target this year marks a significant reduction in his throwing effectiveness over last year’s 7.8% figure.
The Houston Texans cornerbacks project as the 5th-best group of CBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
295
Passing Yards