Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 14.5 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this season (57.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (34.9%).
Rhamondre Stevenson has run for substantially more yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.6% run rate.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-least yards in the NFL (just 108 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best unit in football this year with their run defense.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards